Notes from the Desk: FOMC Meeting – The Over/Under   The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised policy rates by 75bps bringing the overnight rate into the 3.75% – 4% range. Chairman Powell reiterated that rates still need to go higher, however, given lags in monetary policy, it is appropriate to consider moving in smaller increments. The […]

Notes From The Desk: Bank of Canada – Reading The Tea Leaves.   “We are drawing closer to the end, but we are not there yet” Tiff Macklem The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by delivering a 50 bps hike rather than the expected 75 bps, bringing the overnight rate to 3.75%.  Bond markets […]

Inflation Frustration – Just Not Cool Enough Headline CPI increased 0.1% in September with the annual rate easing 0.1% to 6.9% (versus consensus 6.7%) CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.4% (seasonally adjusted) The core data was unchanged with CPI-trim at 5.2% and CPI-median at 4.7% Implications. Inflation is proving stickier than hoped and this […]

Notes from the Desk – Canadian Business Outlook Survey Q3 saw Canadian business sentiment experience its third-largest drop, behind only the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic. Although expectations for sales, cap-ex, and hiring all declined, 77% of firms still anticipate inflation to remain above 3% in 2023.  The majority of respondents also felt that […]

Notes From the Desk – September Employment Data This morning’s North American data can be summarized as meeting expectations. By the Numbers: US 263k jobs created (255k expected) YoY wage growth as expected at 5% Unemployment rate dips to 3.5% (3.7% expected)   Implication: The Federal Reserve remains on track to lift rates to around […]