Notes from the Desk – US CPI – Still Too Hot Today’s CPI number disappointed those looking for signs that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could ease off the brakes. Annual inflation came in at 8.3% (8.1% expected) as increases in food prices offset the drop in gasoline prices Core inflation came in at 6.3% (6.1% […]

Notes From the Desk – Canadian Jobs – Strike 3? Today’s 40k decline in jobs makes it three declines in a row.  The unemployment rate moved up from 4.9% to 5.4% Seasonal adjustments added to the confusion with a nearly 50k decline in education workers. A 28k decline in construction jobs suggests higher rates are […]

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked 75bps this morning, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25% The BoC squashed any hope that they were finished by making it clear that ‘policy interest rates will need to rise further.’ Implications: Little reaction in yields as the bond market is already priced for a terminal rate of 3.5% […]

  Today’s US employment data shows that unsustainable growth is moderating: 315k jobs created (318k expected) Unemployment rate moves up 2 ticks to 3.7% (labour force rose by 800k as more people have decided to look for work) Monthly wage growth is a touch softer at 0.3% vs 0.4% expected Today’s data does little to […]

  Chairman Powell’s much-anticipated speech was short and to the point this morning.  His effort to keep inflation expectations under control was on full display as he forcefully aligned himself with Paul Volcker, declaring that the Federal Reserve would not declare a premature victory in the fight to bring inflation down to 2%. In terms […]