Notes from the Desk | North American Employment Data Jan 05 2024

Notes From the Desk – North American Employment Data

 

The shine is coming off the bond market as employment remains more resilient than expected.

By the Numbers.

US

• 216k jobs created vs 176k expected.
• -71k net revision to previous two months.
• Unemployment rate remains at 3.7% vs 3.8% expected.
• YoY wage growth 4.1% vs 4% expected.

 

Canada

• 0.1k jobs created vs 15k expected.
  • The mix is poor with 23.5k full-time jobs lost and 23.6k part-time jobs created.
• Unemployment rate 5.8% vs 5.9% expected, with the participation rate 0.2% lower.
• YoY wage growth 5.7% vs 5.45% expected.

 

Implications.

The -71k revision to the October and November data points to a gradually cooling US labour market, supporting the possibility of a ‘soft landing’.  On the other hand, the December numbers mean the odds of a cut in March are diminished.

 

The Canadian data is a mixed bag with stronger hours worked and wage growth, but lower job creation and participation.  This has the potential of pushing rate cuts from the spring to the summer.