Notes from the Desk

Oct 18, 2022

Notes from the Desk – Canadian Business Outlook Survey Q3 saw Canadian business sentiment experience its third-largest drop, behind only the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic. Although...

Oct 7, 2022

Notes From the Desk – September Employment Data This morning’s North American data can be summarized as meeting expectations. By the Numbers: US 263k jobs created (255k expected) YoY wage growth...

Sep 22, 2022

The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 75bps rate hike, bringing policy rates into the 3.0-3.25% band. The Fed’s median forecasts for overnight rates: End of 2022 – 4.4% End of 2023 – 4.6% End of...

Sep 20, 2022

Notes From The Desk: Canadian Inflation – A Glimmer of Hope Canadian inflation slowed in August, with headline CPI coming in at 7% (7.3% expected) as lower gasoline prices offset rising food...

Sep 13, 2022

Notes from the Desk – US CPI – Still Too Hot Today’s CPI number disappointed those looking for signs that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could ease off the brakes. Annual inflation came in at 8.3%...

Sep 9, 2022

Notes From the Desk – Canadian Jobs – Strike 3? Today’s 40k decline in jobs makes it three declines in a row. The unemployment rate moved up from 4.9% to 5.4% Seasonal adjustments added to the...

Sep 7, 2022

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked 75bps this morning, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25% The BoC squashed any hope that they were finished by making it clear that ‘policy interest rates will need...

Sep 6, 2022

Today’s US employment data shows that unsustainable growth is moderating: 315k jobs created (318k expected) Unemployment rate moves up 2 ticks to 3.7% (labour force rose by 800k as more people...

Aug 26, 2022

Chairman Powell’s much-anticipated speech was short and to the point this morning. His effort to keep inflation expectations under control was on full display as he forcefully aligned himself with...

Aug 5, 2022

The employment picture in Canada and the US seems to be diverging. Here are the numbers: US Non-Farm Payrolls: 528k jobs added (250k expected) Monthly wage growth 0.5% (0.3% expected) Unemployment...

Jul 27, 2022

The Federal Reserve raised the target rate by 0.75% to the range of 2.25-2.5%. Chairman Powell confirmed that this is close to neutral. From the press conference: The FOMC is now data-dependant...

Jul 13, 2022

‘Shock and awe’ is a military tactic where overwhelming force is employed to destroy an enemy’s will to fight. Today the Bank of Canada (BoC) deployed the central bank version by delivering a...