Notes from the Desk

Jan 12, 2023

Notes from the Desk: US Inflation – A Sigh of Relief US CPI was bang on the consensus forecast: YoY Headline Inflation: 6.5% (previous 7.1%) YoY Core Inflation: 5.7% (previous 6%) Goods prices...

Dec 21, 2022

Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – Still High But Heading in the Right Direction. By the numbers. November CPI came in at 6.8%, lower than last month’s 6.9% print, but higher than the 6.7% forecast...

Dec 15, 2022

Notes from the Desk – Federal Reserve – Reading the Tea Leaves What they did. As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates 50bps, bringing the band for the Funds rate to 4.25%-4.5% What...

Dec 13, 2022

Notes from the Desk | US CPI – Heading in the Right Direction US CPI decelerated by more than forecast as the recent drop in energy prices offset higher food costs. YoY CPI – 7.1% vs 7.3% expected...

Dec 7, 2022

Notes from the Desk – The BoC Announcement: Reading The Tea Leaves The fact the BoC hiked 50 bps taking the overnight rate to 4.25% falls into the ‘who cares’ category. The more important part of...

Dec 2, 2022

Notes from the Desk – North American Employment: Uncomfortably Robust Neither higher rates, nor widespread predictions of an imminent recession are curbing hiring. Canadian Employment: 10.1k gain...

Nov 16, 2022

Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – No Game Changer The October CPI data had a tidbit for both the ‘bull’ and ‘bear’ camps. Despite a surge in energy prices, and food inflation still in double digits...

Nov 10, 2022

Notes from the Desk – US CPI – A Welcome Relief Federal Reserve officials are feeling a bit more comfortable this morning as US October inflation data came in lower than expected. YoY headline...

Nov 4, 2022

Note from the Desk – Higher Rates, Hire More! The North American labour markets continue to confound conventional monetary theorists. Higher rates and a looming recession don’t seem to be...

Nov 2, 2022

Notes from the Desk: FOMC Meeting – The Over/Under The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised policy rates by 75bps bringing the overnight rate into the 3.75% – 4% range. Chairman Powell reiterated that...

Oct 26, 2022

Notes From The Desk: Bank of Canada – Reading The Tea Leaves. “We are drawing closer to the end, but we are not there yet” Tiff Macklem The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by delivering a...

Oct 19, 2022

Inflation Frustration – Just Not Cool Enough Headline CPI increased 0.1% in September with the annual rate easing 0.1% to 6.9% (versus consensus 6.7%) CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.4%...