Notes from the Desk

Mar 13, 2026

The Canadian labour market delivered one of its worst non-pandemic months on record, losing 83.9k jobs in February. A harsh winter may have amplified the weakness, but Canada has seen winters...

Feb 11, 2026

The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s...

Jan 28, 2026

The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed...

Jan 28, 2026

As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s...

Oct 29, 2025

This morning, the BoC cut the policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%. The vital development was the Bank signalling that this might be it for rate cuts, at least in the near term. The...

Sep 17, 2025

For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting...

Sep 8, 2025

Today’s employment data confirms that businesses in the US and Canada are reluctant to add headcount. Both reports came in below expectations, making the case for the BoC and Fed to cut this...

Aug 19, 2025

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is walking a fine line between inflation and growth concerns. Today’s CPI data ought to make them a touch more comfortable that inflation is not accelerating. The Numbers...

Aug 1, 2025

Today’s report calls into question Chairman Powell’s view that the labour market is in balance. The Numbers. 73k jobs created vs 104k expected The previous two months’ payrolls were revised lower...

Jul 31, 2025

As expected, the BoC held rates steady at 2.75%. Today’s decision was accompanied by an updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR), in which the Bank provided economic forecasts based on three trade...

Jul 31, 2025

Chairman Powell clearly prefers to be remembered as ‘Too Late Powell’ rather than as ‘Push Over Powell’, as the FOMC held the policy rate steady at 4.25-4.50%. The meeting marked the first time...

Jul 4, 2025

It appears that the Fed can take the summer off, with job creation in June exceeding expectations. The numbers. 147k jobs were created, beating expectations of 106k. The prior two months were...