Notes from the Desk

May 7, 2025

It came as no surprise that the Fed held rates steady for a third consecutive meeting. The statement. The FOMC notes that ‘the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen’. The...

Apr 16, 2025

The Bank of Canada opted to hold rates steady to assess the fallout from the trade conflict with the US. Furthermore, the Bank offered little forward rate guidance, opting to maintain maximum...

Apr 9, 2025

Despite bold claims from the US administration that Americans should ignore the decline in equities and spike in yields, it is evident that they faced a great deal of pressure to walk back the...

Mar 19, 2025

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady. In light of the uncertainty created by the US administration, the Fed reiterated that they remain ‘data dependent’. The numbers. The dot...

Mar 12, 2025

Amid ‘pervasive uncertainty’, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut the overnight rate 25 bps to 2.75%, taking us to the midpoint of their estimated range for the neutral rate (2.25% – 3.25%). The...

Mar 7, 2025

Investors and traders are likely relieved that today’s employment data didn’t add to the market confusion. The Numbers. Canada 1.1k jobs created (20k expected) Unemployment rate 6.6% (6.7%...

Jan 29, 2025

Nobody was surprised that the FOMC held rates steady this afternoon. Inflation remains elevated, while the labour market remains strong, leaving the FOMC to remain on the sidelines. The Press...

Jan 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3%, now firmly inside the 2.25%-3.25% neutral rate band. The Bank also dropped forward rate guidance, adopting a neutral posture for...

Dec 6, 2024

Today’s employment data confirms that economic conditions between Canada and the US continue to diverge. The numbers. US 227k jobs created (220k expected). Unemployment rate: 4.2% (4.1% expected)...

Nov 29, 2024

This morning, all eyes were on GDP to hint at what the Bank of Canada (BoC) will do at their December 11th meeting. The numbers. Q3 GDP: 1.0% (vs. 1.1% expected). September MoM GDP: 0.1% (vs...

Nov 19, 2024

Inflation rose slightly in October, with headline CPI at 2%. But this probably does very little to influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision in December. The numbers. YoY CPI: 2% (1.9%...

Nov 8, 2024

Domestic employment growth was humdrum in October. The numbers. 14.7k jobs created (27k expected) The mix was slightly favourable, with 25.6k full-time positions generated versus 11.2k part-time...