Notes from the Desk

Mar 12, 2025

Amid ‘pervasive uncertainty’, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut the overnight rate 25 bps to 2.75%, taking us to the midpoint of their estimated range for the neutral rate (2.25% – 3.25%). The...

Mar 7, 2025

Investors and traders are likely relieved that today’s employment data didn’t add to the market confusion. The Numbers. Canada 1.1k jobs created (20k expected) Unemployment rate 6.6% (6.7%...

Jan 29, 2025

Nobody was surprised that the FOMC held rates steady this afternoon. Inflation remains elevated, while the labour market remains strong, leaving the FOMC to remain on the sidelines. The Press...

Jan 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3%, now firmly inside the 2.25%-3.25% neutral rate band. The Bank also dropped forward rate guidance, adopting a neutral posture for...

Dec 6, 2024

Today’s employment data confirms that economic conditions between Canada and the US continue to diverge. The numbers. US 227k jobs created (220k expected). Unemployment rate: 4.2% (4.1% expected)...

Nov 29, 2024

This morning, all eyes were on GDP to hint at what the Bank of Canada (BoC) will do at their December 11th meeting. The numbers. Q3 GDP: 1.0% (vs. 1.1% expected). September MoM GDP: 0.1% (vs...

Nov 19, 2024

Inflation rose slightly in October, with headline CPI at 2%. But this probably does very little to influence the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision in December. The numbers. YoY CPI: 2% (1.9%...

Nov 8, 2024

Domestic employment growth was humdrum in October. The numbers. 14.7k jobs created (27k expected) The mix was slightly favourable, with 25.6k full-time positions generated versus 11.2k part-time...

Nov 8, 2024

The Americans had one unanimous vote this week, with all members of the Federal Reserve Committee agreeing to deliver a 25 bps cut, reducing the target range for the Fed Funds Rate to 4.5-4.75%...

Oct 28, 2024

This morning, the Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.75%. Since June, the BoC has lowered the policy rate by 1.25%. The takeaways: With inflation falling to the 2%...

Oct 28, 2024

Today’s CPI is the last major data point before next week’s Bank of Canada decision, and it certainly means they will cut the policy rate. The numbers: YoY CPI 1.6% (1.8% expected) The main driver...

Oct 4, 2024

The unambiguously strong September US jobs report dented the summer narrative of weakness in the labour market. The numbers: 254k jobs created (140k expected). Unemployment rate falls to 4.1%...