Notes from the Desk

Aug 15, 2023

Notes From the Desk – CAD CPI – An Unwelcome Surprise The record-breaking heat in July (highest average global temperature ever recorded) spilled over into Canadian inflation, with CPI coming in...

Aug 4, 2023

Notes from the Desk: Today’s Employment Data – Searching for a One-Handed Economist Anyone hoping today’s job numbers would offer clarity on rate hikes would require Harry Truman’s imaginary...

Aug 2, 2023

Notes from the Desk: US Treasuries – The Trifecta of Pain The last few days have not been kind to holders of US treasuries, with yields rising and the curve steepening. One. The first surprise was...

Jul 26, 2023

Notes From the Desk: FOMC Meeting – A Tweak Away As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked 25bps, bringing the fed funds into a range of 5.25-5.5%. The press release was almost a carbon...

Jul 12, 2023

Notes From the Desk: Two for One Special – Bank of Canada and US CPI Bank of Canada Rate Announcement. The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the overnight by 25 bps, bringing it to 5%. The Bank pointed...

Jul 7, 2023

Notes From the Desk: Today’s Employment Data – Sealing the Deal Canadian and US employment data for June was released this morning, confirming the resiliency of labour markets despite higher...

Jun 15, 2023

Notes From The Desk: FOMC Meeting – A Hawkish Pause The FOMC chose to exercise patience today by holding rates steady but raised the terminal rate’s median projection to 5.6%, indicating the need...

Jun 13, 2023

Notes From the Desk – US Inflation – Is It Slow Enough? The last data point before tomorrow’s Federal Reserve (Fed) dropped this morning. The numbers. YoY headline CPI 4% (Consensus estimate 4.1%)...

Jun 9, 2023

Notes from the Desk – CAD Employment Data – Is Bad News Good News? Today’s headlines will focus on the loss of 17k jobs, but the ‘devil is in the details.’ The headline numbers. Employment fell...

Jun 7, 2023

Notes from the Desk: The Bank of Canada Rate Announcement- Surprised But Not Surprised Today’s announcement. The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the overnight rate by 25 bps to 4.75% this morning. The...

Jun 2, 2023

Notes from the Desk – US Jobs Data – Will the Fed Pause the Pause? Today’s US employment data offered a little bit for everyone. Payrolls crushed expectations, but unemployment ticked higher and...

May 16, 2023

Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – It’s Still Hot in Here The Canadian inflation data for April surprised to the upside this morning. YoY CPI 4.4% vs 4.1% expected. YoY core-CPI measures came in at...