Notes from the Desk

May 5, 2023

Notes From the Desk: US & Canadian Employment – Not Cinco-ing (de Mayo) with Expectations Both the US and Canadian employment wage growth data were stronger than expected, as the inflation dragon...

May 3, 2023

Notes from the Desk – The Powell Pause (kinda) As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 25bps hike, establishing the range of the Fed funds rate at 5-5.25% The accompanying statement...

Apr 18, 2023

Notes From The Desk: CAD CPI – It’s All About The Base Inflation continued to decelerate in March, meeting consensus expectations. Annual CPI fell from 5.2% to 4.3% as lower energy prices more...

Apr 12, 2023

Notes From the Desk – Bank of Canada Decision – Patience Young Grasshopper As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady at 4.5%. They also updated their economic forecasts: Inflation is...

Apr 12, 2023

Notes From the Desk – US CPI – Faint Progress US March inflation points to a slight moderation in price pressures. YoY headline CPI 5% vs 5.1% expected. YoY core CPI 5.6% vs 5.6% expected...

Mar 23, 2023

Notes from The Desk – FOMC Meeting – The Dot Plot Thickens The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the overnight rate by 25bps on Wednesday afternoon, bringing the range to 4.75-5%. The Fed also softened...

Mar 14, 2023

Notes from the Desk – North American Labour Markets Remain Strong. Once again, more people than expected found work on both sides of the border. Canada: • Employment increased by 21.8k vs 10k...

Mar 14, 2023

Notes from the Desk: SVB Impact on Rate Markets It’s been a wild Monday morning, with US and CAD 2y rates dropping 0.50%. Since Thursday we have seen the US 2y decline ~1% and the CAD 2y fall...

Mar 14, 2023

Notes from the Desk – US Inflation Chairman Powell is certainly earning his $190k salary, dealing with a battle on two fronts. Just a few days ago, the market was 100% certain that the Federal...

Mar 8, 2023

Notes from the Desk: Bank of Canada Meeting – Steady As She Goes As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) remained on pause and kept the overnight rate at 4.50%. Noteworthy: The BoC sees signs that...

Feb 3, 2023

Notes from the Desk – US Payrolls – Holy Crap! By the numbers. Today’s US payrolls blew the doors off. The economy produced 517k jobs last month, more than double the 185k forecast. The...

Jan 30, 2023

Notes from the Desk – Bank of Canada: This is the End. To quote the Doors, ‘this is the end, beautiful friend…the end.’ At least for now. After delivering a 25 bps hike and bringing the overnight...