Market Insights
Monthly Commentaries
Dead Reckoning
“I am not lost, for I know where I am.
But however, where I am may be lost.”
Winnie-the-Pooh
Notes from the Desk
FOMC Announcement – Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Tiff be Nimble, Tiff be Quick
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the first to incorporate the Middle East conflict alongside the ongoing...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – On the Horns of Dilemma
Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy...
FOMC Announcement – A Ball of Confusion
The FOMC held rates steady, citing uncertainty stemming from the Iran war as a reason to remain on the sidelines. Nonetheless, as this meeting provided updated forecasts, there was plenty for bond...
Canadian Employment – Help Not Wanted
The Canadian labour market delivered one of its worst non-pandemic months on record, losing 83.9k jobs in February. A harsh winter may have amplified the weakness, but Canada has seen winters...
US Payrolls – Buy the Rumour, Sell the Data
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s...