Market Insights
Monthly Commentaries
Rate Hikes?
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time is different.”
Sir John Templeton
Notes from the Desk
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – On the Horns of Dilemma
Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy...
FOMC Announcement – A Ball of Confusion
The FOMC held rates steady, citing uncertainty stemming from the Iran war as a reason to remain on the sidelines. Nonetheless, as this meeting provided updated forecasts, there was plenty for bond...
Canadian Employment – Help Not Wanted
The Canadian labour market delivered one of its worst non-pandemic months on record, losing 83.9k jobs in February. A harsh winter may have amplified the weakness, but Canada has seen winters...
US Payrolls – Buy the Rumour, Sell the Data
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s...
No Comment
The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed...
On Hold – and Watching Washington
As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s...