Market Insights
Monthly Commentaries
Watchful Watching
“This is a period of watchful thinking, not watchful waiting.”
Kevin Warsh
Notes from the Desk
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Between Scylla and Charybdis
Confronted with a hazard on each side of the strait, a trade war on one flank and energy-driven inflation on the other, the Bank held at 2.25% and steered visibly closer to the one it fears less. ...
Canada-US Trade – The Empire Tariffs Back
Trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed Friday night, and by Saturday tariffs were again flying in both directions. Same trade war, another sequel, and this morning Trump added a new...
FOMC Announcement – Family Feud
Kevin Warsh said he wanted a good family fight at his second meeting as chairman, and three colleagues obliged. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote was not unanimous, with three hawkish...
US Payrolls – Giving Back
Job creation was weak in June, although the unemployment rate managed to improve. The numbers. 57k jobs created (115k expected) May revised down to 129k, a hefty cut from the initial 172k print...
FOMC Announcement – There Is a Taskforce for That
Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair was less of a rate decision and more of a philosophical manifesto. The policy rate was left unchanged, but the institution itself is being rebuilt from the...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Looking Through the Looking-Glass
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past...