Market Insights
Monthly Commentaries
The Duck-Rabbit
‘We find certain things about seeing puzzling,
because we do not find the whole business about seeing puzzling enough.’
Ludwig Wittgenstein
Notes from the Desk
US Payrolls – Buy the Rumour, Sell the Data
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s...
No Comment
The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed...
On Hold – and Watching Washington
As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Passing the Baton
This morning, the BoC cut the policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%. The vital development was the Bank signalling that this might be it for rate cuts, at least in the near term. The...
The Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Mack(lem) the Knife Cuts Again.
For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting...
US & CAD Employment – The Case for Cuts
Today’s employment data confirms that businesses in the US and Canada are reluctant to add headcount. Both reports came in below expectations, making the case for the BoC and Fed to cut this month....