Market Insights
Monthly Commentaries
Watchful Watching
“This is a period of watchful thinking, not watchful waiting.”
Kevin Warsh
Notes from the Desk
FOMC Announcement – Family Feud
Kevin Warsh said he wanted a good family fight at his second meeting as chairman, and three colleagues obliged. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote was not unanimous, with three hawkish...
US Payrolls – Giving Back
Job creation was weak in June, although the unemployment rate managed to improve. The numbers. 57k jobs created (115k expected) May revised down to 129k, a hefty cut from the initial 172k print...
FOMC Announcement – There Is a Taskforce for That
Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair was less of a rate decision and more of a philosophical manifesto. The policy rate was left unchanged, but the institution itself is being rebuilt from the...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Looking Through the Looking-Glass
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past...
North American Employment – Fool Me Twice
The labour (or labor) market on both sides of the border had something to say this morning, and neither said what the market expected. South of the border, payrolls more than doubled the consensus,...
FOMC Announcement – Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell...