Market Insights
Monthly Commentaries
Real Recession Or Fake News
“Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions.”
Paul Samuelson
Notes from the Desk
FOMC Announcement – There Is a Taskforce for That
Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair was less of a rate decision and more of a philosophical manifesto. The policy rate was left unchanged, but the institution itself is being rebuilt from the...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Looking Through the Looking-Glass
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past...
North American Employment – Fool Me Twice
The labour (or labor) market on both sides of the border had something to say this morning, and neither said what the market expected. South of the border, payrolls more than doubled the consensus,...
FOMC Announcement – Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Tiff be Nimble, Tiff be Quick
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the first to incorporate the Middle East conflict alongside the ongoing...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – On the Horns of Dilemma
Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy...