Notes From The Desk
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Looking Through the Looking-Glass
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past...
North American Employment – Fool Me Twice
The labour (or labor) market on both sides of the border had something to say this morning, and neither said what the market expected. South of the border, payrolls more than doubled the consensus,...
FOMC Announcement – Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Tiff be Nimble, Tiff be Quick
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the first to incorporate the Middle East conflict alongside the ongoing...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – On the Horns of Dilemma
Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy...
FOMC Announcement – A Ball of Confusion
The FOMC held rates steady, citing uncertainty stemming from the Iran war as a reason to remain on the sidelines. Nonetheless, as this meeting provided updated forecasts, there was plenty for bond...
Canadian Employment – Help Not Wanted
The Canadian labour market delivered one of its worst non-pandemic months on record, losing 83.9k jobs in February. A harsh winter may have amplified the weakness, but Canada has seen winters...
US Payrolls – Buy the Rumour, Sell the Data
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s...
No Comment
The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed...
On Hold – and Watching Washington
As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Passing the Baton
This morning, the BoC cut the policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%. The vital development was the Bank signalling that this might be it for rate cuts, at least in the near term. The...
The Bank of Canada Rate Decision – Mack(lem) the Knife Cuts Again.
For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting...