Notes from the Desk

Sep 16, 2026

In a unanimous decision, the Fed hiked 25 bps, raising the Fed Funds Rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The move was expected, with the market odds at 92%. The only question was whether the hike would be...

Sep 2, 2026

Confronted with a hazard on each side of the strait, a trade war on one flank and energy-driven inflation on the other, the Bank held at 2.25% and steered visibly closer to the one it fears less...

Aug 24, 2026

Trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed Friday night, and by Saturday tariffs were again flying in both directions. Same trade war, another sequel, and this morning Trump added a new...

Jul 29, 2026

Kevin Warsh said he wanted a good family fight at his second meeting as chairman, and three colleagues obliged. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote was not unanimous, with three...

Jul 2, 2026

Job creation was weak in June, although the unemployment rate managed to improve. The numbers. 57k jobs created (115k expected) May revised down to 129k, a hefty cut from the initial 172k print...

Jun 17, 2026

Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair was less of a rate decision and more of a philosophical manifesto. The policy rate was left unchanged, but the institution itself is being rebuilt from the...

Jun 10, 2026

The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past...

Jun 5, 2026

The labour (or labor) market on both sides of the border had something to say this morning, and neither said what the market expected. South of the border, payrolls more than doubled the...

Apr 29, 2026

The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell...

Apr 29, 2026

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the first to incorporate the Middle East conflict alongside the...

Mar 19, 2026

Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy...

Mar 19, 2026

The FOMC held rates steady, citing uncertainty stemming from the Iran war as a reason to remain on the sidelines. Nonetheless, as this meeting provided updated forecasts, there was plenty for bond...