Notes From The Desk

As expected, the FOMC cut rates 25 bps to 3.5-3.75%, with three dissenters, two in favour of a hold, and Miran once again preferring a 50 bps cut. The important bits. The Fed’s projections showed a...

As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady this morning.  Based on the accompanying statement and press conference, we interpreted it as a dovish hold. The important bits. The Bank is...

This morning, the BoC cut the policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%.  The vital development was the Bank signalling that this might be it for rate cuts, at least in the near term. The...

For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting...

Today’s employment data confirms that businesses in the US and Canada are reluctant to add headcount.  Both reports came in below expectations, making the case for the BoC and Fed to cut this month....

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is walking a fine line between inflation and growth concerns.  Today’s CPI data ought to make them a touch more comfortable that inflation is not accelerating. The Numbers....

Today's report calls into question Chairman Powell's view that the labour market is in balance. The Numbers. 73k jobs created vs 104k expected The previous two months' payrolls were revised lower by...

As expected, the BoC held rates steady at 2.75%. Today’s decision was accompanied by an updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR), in which the Bank provided economic forecasts based on three trade...

Chairman Powell clearly prefers to be remembered as ‘Too Late Powell’ rather than as ‘Push Over Powell’, as the FOMC held the policy rate steady at 4.25-4.50%.    The meeting marked the first time...

It appears that the Fed can take the summer off, with job creation in June exceeding expectations. The numbers. 147k jobs were created, beating expectations of 106k. The prior two months were...

It came as no surprise that the Fed held rates steady for a third consecutive meeting. The statement. The FOMC notes that ‘the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen’. The...

The Bank of Canada opted to hold rates steady to assess the fallout from the trade conflict with the US. Furthermore, the Bank offered little forward rate guidance, opting to maintain maximum...