Notes From The Desk
US July Payrolls – That’s Gonna Leave a Mark
Today's report calls into question Chairman Powell's view that the labour market is in balance. The Numbers. 73k jobs created vs 104k expected The previous two months' payrolls were revised lower by...
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – A Dovish Hold
As expected, the BoC held rates steady at 2.75%. Today’s decision was accompanied by an updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR), in which the Bank provided economic forecasts based on three trade...
FOMC Meeting – Dissent Amongst The Ranks
Chairman Powell clearly prefers to be remembered as ‘Too Late Powell’ rather than as ‘Push Over Powell’, as the FOMC held the policy rate steady at 4.25-4.50%. The meeting marked the first time...
US Nonfarm Payrolls – The Fed’s Out for Summer
It appears that the Fed can take the summer off, with job creation in June exceeding expectations. The numbers. 147k jobs were created, beating expectations of 106k. The prior two months were...
Wait For It…
It came as no surprise that the Fed held rates steady for a third consecutive meeting. The statement. The FOMC notes that ‘the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen’. The...
Slow or Slower
The Bank of Canada opted to hold rates steady to assess the fallout from the trade conflict with the US. Furthermore, the Bank offered little forward rate guidance, opting to maintain maximum...
Knock, Knock. Who’s there? Tariffs. Just Kidding.
Despite bold claims from the US administration that Americans should ignore the decline in equities and spike in yields, it is evident that they faced a great deal of pressure to walk back the...
FOMC Meeting – Much Ado About Nothing
As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates steady. In light of the uncertainty created by the US administration, the Fed reiterated that they remain ‘data dependent’. The numbers. The dot...
The BoC Rate Cute – Certainly Uncertain
Amid ‘pervasive uncertainty’, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut the overnight rate 25 bps to 2.75%, taking us to the midpoint of their estimated range for the neutral rate (2.25% - 3.25%). The Decision. ...
Canadian & US Employment Data – No Big Deal
Investors and traders are likely relieved that today’s employment data didn’t add to the market confusion. The Numbers. Canada 1.1k jobs created (20k expected) Unemployment rate 6.6% (6.7% expected)...
FOMC Rate Announcement
Nobody was surprised that the FOMC held rates steady this afternoon. Inflation remains elevated, while the labour market remains strong, leaving the FOMC to remain on the sidelines. The Press...
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement
The Bank of Canada (BoC) lowered the policy rate by 25 bps to 3%, now firmly inside the 2.25%-3.25% neutral rate band. The Bank also dropped forward rate guidance, adopting a neutral posture for...