Jul 2, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Job creation was weak in June, although the unemployment rate managed to improve. The numbers. 57k jobs created (115k expected) May revised down to 129k, a hefty cut from the initial 172k print Unemployment rate: 4.2% (down from 4.3%) Average hourly earnings growth:...Jun 17, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair was less of a rate decision and more of a philosophical manifesto. The policy rate was left unchanged, but the institution itself is being rebuilt from the studs. The changes. Warsh came in swinging. The Chairman emphatically...Jun 10, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past it. Employment is flat on the year, and unemployment is range-bound at...Jun 5, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The labour (or labor) market on both sides of the border had something to say this morning, and neither said what the market expected. South of the border, payrolls more than doubled the consensus, giving the Treasury market something to worry about. Canada’s...Apr 29, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell announcing he will remain as a governor after his term as chair ends on May...Apr 29, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the first to incorporate the Middle East conflict alongside the ongoing tariff/CUSMA overhang. The forecast. The Bank’s April outlook assumes...
