Feb 11, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s view that the labour market is stabilizing. The numbers. 130k jobs...Jan 28, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed painted a picture of a strengthening economy. They shifted their description...Jan 28, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s press conference was a masterclass in saying a lot while saying nothing....Oct 29, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
This morning, the BoC cut the policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%. The vital development was the Bank signalling that this might be it for rate cuts, at least in the near term. The interesting bits. “The Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about...Sep 17, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting from inflation to the labour market and the economy. Inflation. On...Sep 8, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Today’s employment data confirms that businesses in the US and Canada are reluctant to add headcount. Both reports came in below expectations, making the case for the BoC and Fed to cut this month. The Numbers. Canada. Net Change: -65.5k (+5k expected) Full-time...
