Sep 2, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Confronted with a hazard on each side of the strait, a trade war on one flank and energy-driven inflation on the other, the Bank held at 2.25% and steered visibly closer to the one it fears less. It appears the Bank is prepared to tolerate a manageable trade drag...Aug 24, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed Friday night, and by Saturday tariffs were again flying in both directions. Same trade war, another sequel, and this morning Trump added a new twist, floating an even bigger tariff for down the road. The tariff...Jul 29, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Kevin Warsh said he wanted a good family fight at his second meeting as chairman, and three colleagues obliged. The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote was not unanimous, with three hawkish dissenters. The notables. The FOMC votes 9-3 to hold, with Hammack,...Jul 2, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Job creation was weak in June, although the unemployment rate managed to improve. The numbers. 57k jobs created (115k expected) May revised down to 129k, a hefty cut from the initial 172k print Unemployment rate: 4.2% (down from 4.3%) Average hourly earnings growth:...Jun 17, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair was less of a rate decision and more of a philosophical manifesto. The policy rate was left unchanged, but the institution itself is being rebuilt from the studs. The changes. Warsh came in swinging. The Chairman emphatically...Jun 10, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past it. Employment is flat on the year, and unemployment is range-bound at...
