Jun 10, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.25%, as expected, but the subtext was more interesting than the decision. Looking through. May’s employment report was strong, but the BoC looked straight past it. Employment is flat on the year, and unemployment is range-bound at...Jun 5, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The labour (or labor) market on both sides of the border had something to say this morning, and neither said what the market expected. South of the border, payrolls more than doubled the consensus, giving the Treasury market something to worry about. Canada’s...Apr 29, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%. The decision itself was never in doubt. What was remarkable was the four dissents, the most since October 1992. The other surprise was Powell announcing he will remain as a governor after his term as chair ends on May...Apr 29, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is the first to incorporate the Middle East conflict alongside the ongoing tariff/CUSMA overhang. The forecast. The Bank’s April outlook assumes...Mar 19, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy and an energy shock that threatens to push inflation higher. The...Mar 19, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC held rates steady, citing uncertainty stemming from the Iran war as a reason to remain on the sidelines. Nonetheless, as this meeting provided updated forecasts, there was plenty for bond traders to chew on. The notables. Full-time employment accounted for...
