Dec 10, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
As expected, the FOMC cut rates 25 bps to 3.5-3.75%, with three dissenters, two in favour of a hold, and Miran once again preferring a 50 bps cut. The important bits. The Fed’s projections showed a significant upgrade to the outlook from September, with 2026 GDP...Dec 10, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady this morning. Based on the accompanying statement and press conference, we interpreted it as a dovish hold. The important bits. The Bank is comfortable that rates are at the right level to support the economy as...Oct 29, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
This morning, the BoC cut the policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 2.25%. The vital development was the Bank signalling that this might be it for rate cuts, at least in the near term. The interesting bits. “The Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about...Sep 17, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting from inflation to the labour market and the economy. Inflation. On...Sep 8, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Today’s employment data confirms that businesses in the US and Canada are reluctant to add headcount. Both reports came in below expectations, making the case for the BoC and Fed to cut this month. The Numbers. Canada. Net Change: -65.5k (+5k expected) Full-time...Aug 19, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is walking a fine line between inflation and growth concerns. Today’s CPI data ought to make them a touch more comfortable that inflation is not accelerating. The Numbers. Headline CPI 1.7% (1.8% expected) Gasoline, clothing, and air...
