Sep 17, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
For the first time since March, there was a clear consensus at the BoC to cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%. The important bits. The decision to cut was based on the balance of risks shifting from inflation to the labour market and the economy. Inflation. On...Sep 8, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Today’s employment data confirms that businesses in the US and Canada are reluctant to add headcount. Both reports came in below expectations, making the case for the BoC and Fed to cut this month. The Numbers. Canada. Net Change: -65.5k (+5k expected) Full-time...Aug 19, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is walking a fine line between inflation and growth concerns. Today’s CPI data ought to make them a touch more comfortable that inflation is not accelerating. The Numbers. Headline CPI 1.7% (1.8% expected) Gasoline, clothing, and air...Aug 1, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Today’s report calls into question Chairman Powell’s view that the labour market is in balance. The Numbers. 73k jobs created vs 104k expected The previous two months’ payrolls were revised lower by 258k vs an expected 16k increase This brings the...Jul 31, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
As expected, the BoC held rates steady at 2.75%. Today’s decision was accompanied by an updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR), in which the Bank provided economic forecasts based on three trade scenarios: current tariffs, de-escalation, and escalation. The noteables....Jul 31, 2025 | Notes from the Desk
Chairman Powell clearly prefers to be remembered as ‘Too Late Powell’ rather than as ‘Push Over Powell’, as the FOMC held the policy rate steady at 4.25-4.50%. The meeting marked the first time since December 1993 that two committee members dissented from the vote....
