Mar 19, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
Central bankers dread the word ‘stagflation’, and today Governor Macklem was doing his best to avoid saying it out loud. The BoC held the policy rate at 2.25%, caught between a softening economy and an energy shock that threatens to push inflation higher. The...Mar 19, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC held rates steady, citing uncertainty stemming from the Iran war as a reason to remain on the sidelines. Nonetheless, as this meeting provided updated forecasts, there was plenty for bond traders to chew on. The notables. Full-time employment accounted for...Mar 13, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The Canadian labour market delivered one of its worst non-pandemic months on record, losing 83.9k jobs in February. A harsh winter may have amplified the weakness, but Canada has seen winters before. The numbers. Full-time employment accounted for the bulk of the...Feb 11, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s view that the labour market is stabilizing. The numbers. 130k jobs...Jan 28, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed painted a picture of a strengthening economy. They shifted their description...Jan 28, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s press conference was a masterclass in saying a lot while saying nothing....
