Today’s business outlook survey confirmed that the Canadian economy is at full capacity: · 77% of firms plan on hiring in 2022 · 78% of firms report difficulty in meeting unexpected demand · Labour shortages reported across most sectors · 67% of firms expect inflation to be 3% or higher Conclusions: · The Bank of […]
US Inflation: When you’re hot. You’re hot. · December inflation 7% with core at 5.5% · Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell told Congress that it made sense to raise rates sooner to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched · A March rate hike is almost a done deal. Omicron might delay lift-off for a meeting, but […]
December Employment Data Summary Today’s Canadian and US employment data indicates that both countries were close to full employment before the Omicron Surge. USD · 199k jobs created versus the consensus expectation of 450k, unemployment rate dips to 3.9% versus expected 4.1% and wages blew past expectations of a 0.4% increase, coming in at 0.6% […]
In the land of the bald eagle, the hawks have begun to emerge. · With inflation showing little signs of slowing down, the Federal Reserve has sent a strong signal that they are taking the situation seriously. · The Fed has accelerated the pace of tapering, such that QE should end by mid-March 2022. · […]
Canadian Inflation Update Today’s CAD CPI data was a non-event in terms of monetary policy. · The headline number of 4.7% was bang on expectations. · In our opinion, the Bank of Canada remains on track to start hiking in April. · Bond yields are essentially unchanged, suggesting the market is comfortable pricing in 4 […]