Notes from the Desk | FOMC Meeting – A Tweak Away July 26 2023

Notes From the Desk: FOMC Meeting – A Tweak Away   As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked 25bps, bringing the fed funds into a range of 5.25-5.5%.  The press release was almost a carbon copy of the one issued at the last meeting, suggesting that the committee’s views have not materially changed. During […]

Notes from the Desk | Two for One Special – Bank of Canada and US CPI July 12 2023

Notes From the Desk: Two for One Special –  Bank of Canada and US CPI   Bank of Canada Rate Announcement. The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the overnight by 25 bps, bringing it to 5%.   The Bank pointed to evidence of persistence in excess demand and core inflation as the rationale for the […]

Notes from the Desk | Today’s Employment Data – Sealing the Deal July 07 2023

Notes From the Desk:  Today’s Employment Data – Sealing the Deal   Canadian and US employment data for June was released this morning, confirming the resiliency of labour markets despite higher interest rates.   By the numbers. Canada 59.9k jobs created (20k expected). Strong mix, with 109.6k full-time jobs, gained while 49.7k part-time positions were […]

Notes from the Desk | FOMC Meeting – A Hawkish Pause June 14 2023

Notes From The Desk: FOMC Meeting – A Hawkish Pause   The FOMC chose to exercise patience today by holding rates steady but raised the terminal rate’s median projection to 5.6%, indicating the need for 50bps of hikes in the coming months. Connecting the dots. The infamous dot plot revealed the following projections.   Terminal […]

Notes from the Desk | US Inflation – Is It Slow Enough? June 13 2023

Notes From the Desk – US Inflation – Is It Slow Enough?   The last data point before tomorrow’s Federal Reserve (Fed) dropped this morning. The numbers. YoY headline CPI 4% (Consensus estimate 4.1%) YoY core CPI 5.3% (Consensus estimate 5.2%)   Tomorrow. With more mixed signals, today’s data did not offer clarity on tomorrow’s […]