Notes from the Desk | FOMC Decision – Talking Tough Sept 22 2022

  The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 75bps rate hike, bringing policy rates into the 3.0-3.25% band. The Fed’s median forecasts for overnight rates:   End of 2022 – 4.4% End of 2023 – 4.6% End of 2024 – 3.9% End of 2025 – 2.9%   During the press conference, Chairman Powell pointed out that […]

Notes from the Desk | Canadian Inflation – A Glimmer of Hope Sept 20 2022

Notes From The Desk: Canadian Inflation – A Glimmer of Hope Canadian inflation slowed in August, with headline CPI coming in at 7% (7.3% expected) as lower gasoline prices offset rising food costs. The closely watched average of the three core measures also slowed from 5.4% to 5.2%. Today’s data reinforces the market expectation that […]

Notes from the Desk | US CPI – Still Too Hot Sept 13 2022

Notes from the Desk – US CPI – Still Too Hot Today’s CPI number disappointed those looking for signs that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could ease off the brakes. Annual inflation came in at 8.3% (8.1% expected) as increases in food prices offset the drop in gasoline prices Core inflation came in at 6.3% (6.1% […]

Notes From The Desk | Canadian Jobs – Strike 3? Sept 09 2022

Notes From the Desk – Canadian Jobs – Strike 3? Today’s 40k decline in jobs makes it three declines in a row.  The unemployment rate moved up from 4.9% to 5.4% Seasonal adjustments added to the confusion with a nearly 50k decline in education workers. A 28k decline in construction jobs suggests higher rates are […]

Notes From The Desk | BoC Meeting: We Aren’t There Yet Sept 07 2022

The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked 75bps this morning, bringing the overnight rate to 3.25% The BoC squashed any hope that they were finished by making it clear that ‘policy interest rates will need to rise further.’ Implications: Little reaction in yields as the bond market is already priced for a terminal rate of 3.5% […]