Notes from the Desk | FOMC Decision – Higher for Longer Sept 20 2023

Notes From the Desk: FOMC Decision – Higher for Longer.   As expected the FOMC held rates steady, while leaving the door open for one more hike this year.   The noteworthy.   The significant changes are to be found in the infamous ‘dot-plot’ which shows that FOMC members reduced the magnitude of cuts in […]

Notes from the Desk | CAD CPI – Stagflation Alert Sept 19 2023

Notes From the Desk:  CAD CPI – Stagflation Alert   Rising unemployment and slower economic growth seem to have had little downward impact on prices.   The rise in headline inflation was fueled by higher gasoline prices, rents, and mortgage costs.  YoY food prices dropped to 6.9% from 8.5% in July, and travel-related costs such […]

Notes from the Desk | US Inflation – The Last Mile is a Tough Slog Sept 13 2023

Notes from the Desk – US  Inflation – The Last Mile is a Tough Slog.   US August CPI came in a touch warmer than expected largely due to higher gas prices. By the numbers.   YoY CPI 3.7% (3.6% expected) YoY core inflation 4.3% (4.3% expected) Core Services less housing was up 0.37% MoM […]

Notes from the Desk | CAD Employment – A Fly in the Ointment Sept 08 2023

Notes From the Desk – CAD Employment – A Fly in the Ointment   Governor Macklem and his BoC entourage must be befuddled this morning. More Canadians than expected landed jobs in August with higher pay. By the numbers.   Net employment change 39.9k (20k expected).  It should be noted that self-employment rose 49.5k meaning […]

Notes from the Desk | Bank of Canada – A Hawkish Hold Sept 06 2023

Notes From the Desk – Bank of Canada – A Hawkish Hold   The Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to hold the overnight rate steady at 5% while continuing the process of reducing its balance sheet (quantitative tightening). The Bank pointed to the softness in recent growth and labour markets as evidence of the lagged […]