Notes From the Desk – Canadian Jobs – Strike 3?
Today’s 40k decline in jobs makes it three declines in a row. The unemployment rate moved up from 4.9% to 5.4%
Seasonal adjustments added to the confusion with a nearly 50k decline in education workers.
A 28k decline in construction jobs suggests higher rates are having an impact on real estate.
YoY wage growth remains strong at 5.6%
Implications.
Today’s number is unlikely to prevent the Bank of Canada from hiking in October; however, it does suggest that we are nearing levels where the Bank could pause and wait to assess the impact of previous rate hikes. As a result, yields ought to remain close to recent levels, and we expect little impact on credit.
