• Notes from the Desk - CAD CPI

Notes from the Desk | CAD CPI Dec 21 2022

Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – Still High But Heading in the Right Direction.

By the numbers.

  • November CPI came in at 6.8%, lower than last month’s 6.9% print, but higher than the 6.7% forecast.
  • Lower gasoline and furniture costs were offset by higher shelter and food costs.
  • The BoC’s CPI-median at 5% is a touch higher than last month’s 4.9%, while the CPI-trim was unchanged at 5.3%.
  • Q4 CPI is on track to come in below the BoC’s October forecast of 7.1%.

 
Implications.
Although CPI remains well above the BoC’s target, it is trending in the right direction. It remains a toss-up whether the BoC is finished raising or will deliver a 25 bps hike in January.  Today’s numbers shouldn’t materially affect bond yields.

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