• Notes from the Desk | Today’s Employment Data - Sealing the Deal

Notes from the Desk | Today’s Employment Data – Sealing the Deal July 07 2023

Notes From the Desk:  Today’s Employment Data – Sealing the Deal


Canadian and US employment data for June was released this morning, confirming the resiliency of labour markets despite higher interest rates.


By the numbers.


  • 59.9k jobs created (20k expected).
    • Strong mix, with 109.6k full-time jobs, gained while 49.7k part-time positions were lost.
  • Unemployment rate 5.4% (5.3% expected).
  • YoY wage growth 3.9%  (4.3% expected).



  • 209k jobs created (230k expected).
  • Unemployment rate 3.6% (meeting forecasts).
  • YoY wage growth 4.4% (4.2% expected).


The implications.

In Canada, we had more jobs with less pay, while in the US, we had fewer jobs with more pay.


  • The Bank of Canada will likely view slower wage growth and a higher unemployment rate as a sign that the labour market is becoming more balanced.  However, the data is still strong enough for the Bank to deliver a 25bps hike this month.  In terms of bond yields, we should see them move higher as the market prices in the possibility of another 25bps hike coming in September.
  • The Federal Reserve has already signalled that at least two more rate hikes are coming.  Today’s data does nothing to reduce the odds of this and solidifies a 25bps hike at the end of the month.
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