Notes From the Desk – CAD Employment – A Fly in the Ointment
Governor Macklem and his BoC entourage must be befuddled this morning. More Canadians than expected landed jobs in August with higher pay.
By the numbers.
- Net employment change 39.9k (20k expected). It should be noted that self-employment rose 49.5k meaning conventional employment fell 9.6k, suggesting that the headline is not as strong as it appears
- Unemployment rate same as last month at 5.5% (5.6% expected)
- YoY wage growth rises from 5% to 5.2% (4.7% expected)
We do not think today’s data seals the deal for a hike in October, but it certainly keeps that door wide open. Furthermore, it means rate cuts remain hidden beyond the horizon. We expect yields to rise modestly in response to today’s data.