The Science of Not Knowing

‘If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.’ Clint Eastwood Last month, we noted that while the future is always unpredictable, Trump’s erratic policies and policy shifts have increased the level of uncertainty. The President encapsulated the situation a day before...

US Nonfarm Payrolls – The Fed’s Out for Summer

It appears that the Fed can take the summer off, with job creation in June exceeding expectations. The numbers. 147k jobs were created, beating expectations of 106k. The prior two months were revised up by 16k. The mix was a touch weak, with state and local government...

The Uncertainty of Uncertainty

‘There are known knowns…there are known unknowns… But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’ Donald Rumsfield There is uncertainty, and there is uncertainty.  As while the future is always unpredictable, a distinction can be made...

The Waiting Game | April 2025

‘The waiting is the hardest part.’ Tom Petty In today’s world of instant gratification, patience is a rare commodity.  After all, a mere 10-minute delay on Uber Eats feels like an unbearable ‘why me’ moment.  Why are they taking so long to pick up the order?  Did they...

Wait For It…

It came as no surprise that the Fed held rates steady for a third consecutive meeting. The statement. The FOMC notes that ‘the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen’. The decision to hold rates was unanimous. The presser. Chairman Powell ducked...