Real Recession Or Fake News

“Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions.” Paul Samuelson Canadian Q1 GDP posted another decline, dropping 0.1%, making it two consecutive quarters on the wrong side of zero.  Cue the headlines featuring the dreaded ‘R-word’, as the...

Dead Reckoning

“I am not lost, for I know where I am. But however, where I am may be lost.” Winnie-the-Pooh Before GPS, before the blinking blue dot, sailors and explorers navigated the open sea using a method called dead reckoning.  The technique is elegantly simple.  You...

Rate Hikes?

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time is different.” Sir John Templeton First and foremost, our thoughts go out to those impacted and affected by the war.  One of our most basic human desires is for safety and security, and with that in...

AI Superforecasters

‘We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.’ Roy Amara (Amara’s Law) Artificial intelligence may be one of the most consequential and disruptive technologies of our time.  The challenge...

The Duck-Rabbit

‘We find certain things about seeing puzzling, because we do not find the whole business about seeing puzzling enough.’ Ludwig Wittgenstein The duck-rabbit illusion is one of the most famous bistable images, where some people see a duck and others a rabbit.  It...

Plays Of The Year

‘An optimist stays up until midnight to see the new year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.’ Bill Vaughn With the passing of another year, so begin the annual new year traditions and rituals. For many, flipping the calendar marks a fresh...