“Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.” Marc Anthony (Shakespeare) Every war has costs: the casualties of battle, the broken eggs required to make an omelette.  Leaders must weigh these against the potential benefits and price of inaction.  And once the war is waged, this cost/benefit analysis must be continuously recalibrated. In their […]

“Take a deep breath in, and let it go.” Every Meditation Teacher Ever For the past couple of years, we have warned investors to be prepared for wild bouts of volatility.  With the economy at an inflection point and central bankers engaged in a delicate balancing act, we expected each data point to be over-scrutinized […]

“60 percent of the time, it works every time.” Brian Fantana in Anchorman Of the many cognitive biases, the ‘anchoring effect’ is often cited as one of the most important and common.  It is our tendency to overemphasize a reference point or initial piece of information we receive, even if they are otherwise irrelevant.   There […]

“Let’s enjoy the moment.” Tiff Macklem Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first of the G7 central banks to cut rates, lowering the overnight level from 5% to 4.75%.  The decision was widely anticipated (i.e., 80%) and one we think was relatively easy for them to make. The 5% level was proving […]

The archer who misses his mark does not blame the target. He stops, corrects himself, and shoots again.’ Confucius This time last year, we expressed our view that the neutral rate of interest (i.e., the level that is neither restrictive nor accommodating) was higher post-pandemic than in the ‘new normal’ era of 2008 – 2020. […]