Waiting For Godot | September 2023

“If I had known who Godot is, I would have written it in the script.” Samuel Beckett Samuel Beckett’s famous ‘tragicomedy in two acts’ is often described as a play in which nothing happens, twice.  The two protagonists, Vladimir and Estragon (Didi and Gogo), spend the entirety of the play (as the title would suggest) […]

Rates: How High Is High? | August 2023

“How long is a piece of string?” Earlier this year, in a commentary littered with bad ‘star’ puns, we wrote about the concept of r*, or the neutral rate.  This is the level for the overnight rate which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy and leads to stable inflation. We noted that the baseline assumption […]

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do | July 2023

“Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.” Marilyn Monroe One of the biggest regrets investors have is overstaying their welcome and holding on to a position for too long.  They either miss the opportunity to take profits before things take a turn for the worse, or they ride a loser down […]

The Halftime Report | June 2023

“It’s time for the never-tedious Super Bowl halftime show.” The Simpsons At the start of the year, there was a sense of optimism amongst bond investors.  It appeared the worst of the rate hikes were behind us, and we were entering the final innings of this tightening cycle. After a dire year for fixed income, […]

A Star Is Born | May 2023

“Look to the stars and from them learn” Albert Einstein Last month, we looked at the neutral rate of interest, which is also known as the natural rate, the equilibrium rate, or in its nerdier, variable form as r*.  This is the level for the overnight rate which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy and […]