That Time Was Different | October 2023

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different’.” Sir John Templeton It is an exciting time to be a bond nerd.  After a few of the most volatile years we have ever seen, it now appears that we are in the midst of a paradigm shift in our world. This shift […]

Waiting For Godot | September 2023

“If I had known who Godot is, I would have written it in the script.” Samuel Beckett Samuel Beckett’s famous ‘tragicomedy in two acts’ is often described as a play in which nothing happens, twice.  The two protagonists, Vladimir and Estragon (Didi and Gogo), spend the entirety of the play (as the title would suggest) […]

Rates: How High Is High? | August 2023

“How long is a piece of string?” Earlier this year, in a commentary littered with bad ‘star’ puns, we wrote about the concept of r*, or the neutral rate.  This is the level for the overnight rate which neither stimulates nor restricts the economy and leads to stable inflation. We noted that the baseline assumption […]

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do | July 2023

“Sometimes good things fall apart so better things can fall together.” Marilyn Monroe One of the biggest regrets investors have is overstaying their welcome and holding on to a position for too long.  They either miss the opportunity to take profits before things take a turn for the worse, or they ride a loser down […]

The Halftime Report | June 2023

“It’s time for the never-tedious Super Bowl halftime show.” The Simpsons At the start of the year, there was a sense of optimism amongst bond investors.  It appeared the worst of the rate hikes were behind us, and we were entering the final innings of this tightening cycle. After a dire year for fixed income, […]