The 2023 Forecast of Forecasts| December 2022

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” Evan Esar The passage of one year into the next is marked by some interesting customs and traditions.  Americans watch the ball drop, Spaniards eat twelve grapes at the stroke of midnight, and the Danes smash crockery on […]

Notes from the Desk | CAD CPI Dec 21 2022

Notes from the Desk – CAD CPI – Still High But Heading in the Right Direction. By the numbers. November CPI came in at 6.8%, lower than last month’s 6.9% print, but higher than the 6.7% forecast. Lower gasoline and furniture costs were offset by higher shelter and food costs. The BoC’s CPI-median at 5% […]

You’re Only A Day Away | November 2022

“Tomorrow is promised to no one.” Clint Eastwood One More Sleep.   Every Canadian bond nerd has tomorrow circled in their calendar.  It is the day the Bank of Canada (BoC) delivers its latest installment in what has been an aggressive series of rate increases. So far this year, they have taken the overnight rate […]

Reuters | November 15, 2022

Canadian corporate bond issuance has begun to rebound after a lull of 10 months, with companies plotting expansion plans and central banks apparently close to the peak of their current cycle of interest rate hikes. Read Here

The Return of The Bond Vigilantes | September 2022

“They’re back.” Poltergeist After a long and dormant hiatus, it seems that ‘bond vigilantes’ are making a comeback.  The term, first coined in the early 80s by Ed Yardeni, refers to investors selling bonds to drive up yields and thus a government’s borrowing costs. It is a form of bond market activism to protest monetary […]