Mar 12, 2026 | Monthly Commentaries
‘We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.’ Roy Amara (Amara’s Law) Artificial intelligence may be one of the most consequential and disruptive technologies of our time. The challenge...Feb 11, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The rumours of a soft payroll report appear to have been ‘fake news’, or, as per Winston Churchill, ‘terminological inexactitudes’. The 130k was twice the consensus estimate, reinforcing Powell’s view that the labour market is stabilizing. The numbers. 130k jobs...Feb 10, 2026 | Monthly Commentaries
‘We find certain things about seeing puzzling, because we do not find the whole business about seeing puzzling enough.’ Ludwig Wittgenstein The duck-rabbit illusion is one of the most famous bistable images, where some people see a duck and others a rabbit. It...Jan 28, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
The FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The vote had two dissenters, with Governors Waller and Miran, in favour of a 25 bps cut. Notables. Overall, the Fed painted a picture of a strengthening economy. They shifted their description...Jan 28, 2026 | Notes from the Desk
As expected, the BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25%. The accompanying statement and press conference were a whole lot of, ‘we’re not moving rates anytime soon’. Notables. Governor Macklem’s press conference was a masterclass in saying a lot while saying nothing....
