Notes from the Desk | Bank of Canada Meeting – Steady As She Goes Mar 08 2023

Notes from the Desk: Bank of Canada Meeting – Steady As She Goes As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) remained on pause and kept the overnight rate at 4.50%. Noteworthy: The BoC sees signs that higher rates are slowing growth. While CPI is still too high, recent data shows that core inflation is heading […]

Notes from the Desk | US Payrolls – Holy Crap! Feb 03 2023

Notes from the Desk – US Payrolls – Holy Crap! By the numbers. Today’s US payrolls blew the doors off. The economy produced 517k jobs last month, more than double the 185k forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% vs. forecasts of a small rise to 3.6%. Although YoY wage growth of 4.4% was only […]

Notes from the Desk | Bank of Canada: This is the End Jan 25 2023

Notes from the Desk – Bank of Canada: This is the End. To quote the Doors, ‘this is the end, beautiful friend…the end.’ At least for now. After delivering a 25 bps hike and bringing the overnight rate to 4.5%, the Bank of Canada (BoC) expects to hold here as it assesses the impact higher rates […]

Notes from the Desk | US Inflation – A Sigh of Relief Jan 12 2023

Notes from the Desk:  US Inflation – A Sigh of Relief US CPI was bang on the consensus forecast: YoY Headline Inflation: 6.5% (previous 7.1%) YoY Core Inflation: 5.7% (previous 6%)   Goods prices continue to fall while upward pressure is prevalent in the service sector. Implications. While the Fed will be happy to see […]

Notes from the Desk | Federal Reserve – Reading the Tea Leaves Dec 15 2022

Notes from the Desk – Federal Reserve – Reading the Tea Leaves   What they did.   As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates 50bps, bringing the band for the Funds rate to 4.25%-4.5% What they said.   Surprisingly, the Fed did not put much weight on the recent improvement in CPI as they […]