Notes from the Desk | US Inflation – A Sigh of Relief Jan 12 2023

Notes from the Desk:  US Inflation – A Sigh of Relief US CPI was bang on the consensus forecast: YoY Headline Inflation: 6.5% (previous 7.1%) YoY Core Inflation: 5.7% (previous 6%)   Goods prices continue to fall while upward pressure is prevalent in the service sector. Implications. While the Fed will be happy to see […]

Notes from the Desk | Federal Reserve – Reading the Tea Leaves Dec 15 2022

Notes from the Desk – Federal Reserve – Reading the Tea Leaves   What they did.   As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised rates 50bps, bringing the band for the Funds rate to 4.25%-4.5% What they said.   Surprisingly, the Fed did not put much weight on the recent improvement in CPI as they […]

Notes from the Desk | US CPI – Heading in the Right Direction Dec 13 2022

Notes from the Desk | US CPI – Heading in the Right Direction US CPI decelerated by more than forecast as the recent drop in energy prices offset higher food costs. YoY CPI – 7.1% vs 7.3% expected YoY core CPI – 6% vs 6.1% expected   Implications: With inflation still far above 2% and […]

Notes from the Desk | The BoC Announcement: Reading The Tea Leaves Dec 07 2022

Notes from the Desk –  The BoC Announcement: Reading The Tea Leaves   The fact the BoC hiked 50 bps taking the overnight rate to 4.25% falls into the ‘who cares’ category.  The more important part of today’s announcement was the language that accompanied the hike. Key Takeaways. The BoC is no longer on auto-pilot […]

Notes from the Desk | North American Employment:  Uncomfortably Robust Dec 02 2022

Notes from the Desk – North American Employment:  Uncomfortably Robust   Neither higher rates, nor widespread predictions of an imminent recession are curbing hiring. Canadian Employment: 10.1k gain which was in line with the consensus, however, the mix was strong, with 50.7k full-time jobs created and 40.6k part-time jobs lost The unemployment rate falls to […]