Notes From the Desk – US Payrolls – A Dent In The Narrative   Over the last several weeks, we have seen bond yields plummeting lower on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting rates in early spring.  Today’s employment data has put a dent in that narrative. By the Numbers.   199k […]

Notes From the Desk – Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – A Tentative Step Closer   To no one’s surprise, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate steady at 5%, while continuing the process of reducing their balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening). Most of what the Bank pointed out in their short press statement would […]

Notes from the Desk – US CPI – Encouraging News The US October CPI report saw both headline and core inflation softer than expected. By the numbers. YoY CPI 3.2% (3.3% expected) YoY Core inflation 4% (4.1% expected)   Implications. The downside surprises were seen in shelter costs, negative core goods prices, and falling used […]

Notes From The Desk: North American Employment – Help Wanted?   October saw a cooling in both temperatures and the North American labour market. By the numbers. Canada.   17.5k jobs added (v. expected 25k), with the gains coming from part-time employment. Unemployment rate: 5.7% (v. expected 5.6%). Wage growth 5.0% year-over-year. (v. expected 5.2%). […]

Notes From The Desk: Bank of Canada – The Unchanged & The Changed   The Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady this morning while continuing the process of quantitative tightening. While this was expected, there were some noteworthy changes to their economic forecast. Looking ahead.   The Forecasts for 2023 & 2024 GDP were […]