Notes From the Desk – CAD CPI – An Unwelcome Surprise   The record-breaking heat in July (highest average global temperature ever recorded) spilled over into Canadian inflation, with CPI coming in hotter than expected. By the numbers.    YoY headline CPI: 3.3% (3% expected) YoY CPI trim: 3.6% (3.6% expected) YoY CPI median: 3.7% […]

Notes from the Desk:  Today’s Employment  Data – Searching for a One-Handed Economist   Anyone hoping today’s job numbers would offer clarity on rate hikes would require Harry Truman’s imaginary one-handed economist.  On the one hand, job creation was weaker than expected, but on the other hand, wage growth was stronger. The numbers. Canada. Loss […]

Notes from the Desk: US Treasuries – The Trifecta of Pain   The last few days have not been kind to holders of US treasuries, with yields rising and the curve steepening. One. The first surprise was the Bank of Japan (BoJ) making an unexpected change to Yield Curve Control (YCC), raising the top end […]

Notes From the Desk: FOMC Meeting – A Tweak Away   As widely expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked 25bps, bringing the fed funds into a range of 5.25-5.5%.  The press release was almost a carbon copy of the one issued at the last meeting, suggesting that the committee’s views have not materially changed. During […]

Notes From the Desk: Two for One Special –  Bank of Canada and US CPI   Bank of Canada Rate Announcement. The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised the overnight by 25 bps, bringing it to 5%.   The Bank pointed to evidence of persistence in excess demand and core inflation as the rationale for the […]