Notes From the Desk – North American Employment Data – No Shortage of Help Wanted
By the numbers.
- 64,000 jobs were created (20,000 expected)
- The increase in jobs was primarily driven by a 66,000 gain in the education sector, which can be volatile at certain times of the year
- Employment growth was skewed towards part-time positions
- Despite the uneven distribution of job growth, it is clear that hiring in Canada is not weak
- The unemployment rate remained at 5.5% (expected 5.6%)
- Year-over-year wage growth stood at 5.3% (expected 5.2%)
- 336k jobs created (170k expected)
- Additionally, the previous two months’ employment growth figures were revised upward by 119,000 jobs.
- Unemployment rate 3.8% (3.7% expected)
- YoY wage growth 4.2% (4.3% expected)
Generally speaking, the resilience of labour markets keeps the threat of rate hikes at ‘DEFCON 1’ while pushing the potential for rate cuts further into the future.
Bond markets are reacting by pushing yields higher by 10-12bps.
While the data increases the probability that the central banks (Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve) may consider rate hikes at their next meetings, they will likely wait for more data before making a final decision.