• Notes from the Desk | North American Employment Data

Notes from the Desk | North American Employment Data Jan 05 2024

Notes From the Desk – North American Employment Data


The shine is coming off the bond market as employment remains more resilient than expected.

By the Numbers.


  • 216k jobs created vs 176k expected.
  • -71k net revision to previous two months.
  • Unemployment rate remains at 3.7% vs 3.8% expected.
  • YoY wage growth 4.1% vs 4% expected.



  • 0.1k jobs created vs 15k expected.
    • The mix is poor with 23.5k full-time jobs lost and 23.6k part-time jobs created.
  • Unemployment rate 5.8% vs 5.9% expected, with the participation rate 0.2% lower.
  • YoY wage growth 5.7% vs 5.45% expected.



The -71k revision to the October and November data points to a gradually cooling US labour market, supporting the possibility of a ‘soft landing’.  On the other hand, the December numbers mean the odds of a cut in March are diminished.


The Canadian data is a mixed bag with stronger hours worked and wage growth, but lower job creation and participation.  This has the potential of pushing rate cuts from the spring to the summer.

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