Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell has achieved an amazing outcome. His highly anticipated speech this morning was a masterpiece of optimism and calmness. · Tapering is expected later this year, with the exact timing dependent on the impact of delta. No panic in bonds and equities make new highs. · Hiking is not on the […]

The Federal Reserve really knows how to thread the needle, having dropped hints about tapering without freaking-out the markets. The As Expecteds. · No change to the overnight rate · Still hold that the recent bout of high inflation is transitory · Quantitative easing continues as is The Surprises. · Not seriously concerned that the […]

Despite well telegraphed signals, the Bank of Canada (BoC) managed to surprise markets with their announcement today. The As Expecteds. No change to the overnight rate The BoC announced a taper in their bond buying from $4bn to $3bn a week. No specific details on how this will be done, but we expect the bulk […]

Yesterday’s meeting and announcement was far more interesting than excepted. There were very subtle hints that the Fed is changing its view on the timing of hikes. First the obvious: View has shifted to two hikes in 2023 from no hikes at the previous meeting Nearly a doubling of members expecting a hike in 2022 […]

Executive Summary of Today’s FOMC Announcement The Announcement As expected, no change to the overnight rate or Quantitative Easing Programs The Fed continues to project their next rate hike for 2023 The central bankers specifically remind the market that they will be content to let inflation run above 2% for sometime in order to allow […]