Inflation Frustration – Just Not Cool Enough Headline CPI increased 0.1% in September with the annual rate easing 0.1% to 6.9% (versus consensus 6.7%) CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.4% (seasonally adjusted) The core data was unchanged with CPI-trim at 5.2% and CPI-median at 4.7% Implications. Inflation is proving stickier than hoped and this […]

Notes from the Desk – Canadian Business Outlook Survey Q3 saw Canadian business sentiment experience its third-largest drop, behind only the Great Financial Crisis and the pandemic. Although expectations for sales, cap-ex, and hiring all declined, 77% of firms still anticipate inflation to remain above 3% in 2023.  The majority of respondents also felt that […]

Notes From the Desk – September Employment Data This morning’s North American data can be summarized as meeting expectations. By the Numbers: US 263k jobs created (255k expected) YoY wage growth as expected at 5% Unemployment rate dips to 3.5% (3.7% expected)   Implication: The Federal Reserve remains on track to lift rates to around […]

  The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a 75bps rate hike, bringing policy rates into the 3.0-3.25% band. The Fed’s median forecasts for overnight rates:   End of 2022 – 4.4% End of 2023 – 4.6% End of 2024 – 3.9% End of 2025 – 2.9%   During the press conference, Chairman Powell pointed out that […]

Notes From The Desk: Canadian Inflation – A Glimmer of Hope Canadian inflation slowed in August, with headline CPI coming in at 7% (7.3% expected) as lower gasoline prices offset rising food costs. The closely watched average of the three core measures also slowed from 5.4% to 5.2%. Today’s data reinforces the market expectation that […]