Not On Autopilot – The Bank of Canada amidst the perfect storm. In yesterday’s speech (“the perfect storm”), Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada shared some insights into the BoC’s thinking. The policy rate needs “to be at neutral levels to help cool demand”, somewhere between 2-3%   We could see a […]

US CPI |Hotter Than Hoped. Although US CPI decelerated in April, it remains far too high: Headline CPI rose 0.3% (0.2% expected) leaving the annual rate at 8.3% (8.1% expected) Core prices rose 0.6% (0.4% expected) bringing the annual rate to 6.2% (6% expected)   Base effects will help annual CPI to fall, however a […]

Notes From the Desk | The Fed’s Playbook Leaked Unlike the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, which was leaked in secret, the Fed’s playbook was leaked by Chairman Powell himself. Today’s meeting was fairly uneventful in that they raised the Funds rate by 50 bps and announced that Quantitative Tightening was commencing. The press conference was […]

Notes From the Desk|CAD CPI – Surprised But Not Surprised CAD CPI for March blew past expectations coming in at a hot 1.4% increase for March (1% expected) bringing the YoY change to 6.7% (6.1% expected). While food, energy, and shelter costs continue to rise, there are signs of widespread price increases as the average […]

Has Inflation Peaked? Lead by surging gasoline prices US CPI did not disappoint coming in at 8.5% YoY. Core CPI came in at 0.3% vs expectations of 0.5%, offering a glimmer of hope that March’s print could be the peak of inflation. Today’s data keeps the Fed on track to deliver a 50bps hike at […]